2011
DHSS 2011 Proceeding
Excel-Based Analysis and Dynamisation of Probabilities For Logistics Planning
Authors: Markus Klug, Andreas Alexa
Abstract
The existing parameters for the planning of logistics support as given in the guidelines for logistics planning at Brigade level and similar guidelines at Battalion level include a huge amount of (fixed) probabilities. These probabilities were derived from historical data. Because of this, these parameters are questioned during war- games, due to the fact that logistics officers? own experiences show different results in certain real-life cases. This paper deals with these parameters and how Excel-based spreadsheets are used to explain the different values, supporting them once the statistical laws of large numbers have been achieved. In addition, it shows how such spreadsheets can be used for situations where a small number (below the afore- mentioned laws) needs to be investigated for logistics purposes.
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