2008
EMSS 2008 Proceeding
Great but flawed expectations: on the importance of presumptions and astonishment in model and simulation based risk management
Authors: Marko Hofmann,Thomas Krieger
Abstract
Unexpected detrimental events probably pose the most dangerous threat to every planning activity. They are the consequence of both explicit and unconscious presump- tions made during the planning process. These presump- tions are the manifestation of the modeler?s own expecta- tions, which can be seriously flawed. Model and simulation based risk management tries to identify potentially danger- ous presumptions (for the real world planning) by looking for astonishing results in models in general and simulations in particular. The astonishment is triggered by (simulation) events that are violations of model assumptions (the model specific instantiations of the presumptions) or events which are simply counter-intuitive. The main idea of this ap- proach is illustrated using examples taken from reliability theory. This choice has been made for didactical purposes the analytical perspicuity of these examples is much better than the one of complex simulation models. Subsequently, the benefits of the approach are demonstrated for military conflict simulation models.
I3M Scientific Sponsors
I3M Industrial Sponsors
I3M Media Sponsors
