2008
EMSS 2008 Proceeding
Hydrological risk analysis of the solimões river using extreme value theory
Authors: Alexandra R. M. Almeida, Beatriz V. M. Mendes, Maria Célia S. Lopes, Gerson G. Cunha
Abstract
The Brazilian hydrography is made by naturally navigable rivers that, in most cases, are the only transport means between many villages located by their margins. It occurs in particular in Amazonas (Brazil), where large distances and adverse natural conditions, make difficult the use of other transportation types, whose implantation and use are too onerous. Rivers are crucial not only for transporting large cargoes through large distances, they are also important to the local and international commerce, making viable the offer of products with competitive prices. This work presents the study with extreme low levels of rivers at Amazon region. In this study, we consider specially Solimões River levels, because Solimões is very important in communicating regular lines of cargo and people fluvial transport between local villages. The use of the Extreme Value Theory to model these extreme low levels of the Solimões river is due to its adequacy and accuracy in estimating probabilities of occurring rare events.
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