2011
EMSS 2011 Proceeding
Design and Implementation of a Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Expert System for Oil Price Estimation
Authors: Mohamad Ali Azadeh, Zeinab sadat Ghaemmohamadi
Abstract
The objective of this study is to design a fuzzy cognitive maps expert system for estimation of monthly oil price based on intelligent approaches and meta heuristics. Oil price is influenced by several elements, such as politic and social factors. In this paper a fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) approach is presented in order to explore the importance of these factors in oil price estimation. To this purpose, causal relationship between affective factors and oil price are depicted and relationship values between them are computed. The proposed expert system utilizes Genetic Algorithm (GA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The system is coded in .net environment by C# and Matlab and Excel are also used linked for data processing and evaluation. The expert system identifies the preferred method (from GA, ANN, ANFIS) through mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
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