2014
EMSS 2014 Proceeding
Simulation optimization for a vaccine distribution strategy against the spread of a (H1N1) epidemic.
Authors: Javier Lara de Paz, Idalia Flores
Abstract
An optimal strategy in order to contain the epidemiological risk of the A(H1N1) disease is analyzed. We scope two different epidemic propagation models, the epidemiological SIR model proposed by Kermack and McKendrick (Kermack and McKendrick 1927) and a small-world network model, assuming that the second one shows a better performance since it considers the interactions between agents and also presents a more realistically dynamic (Moore and Newman 2000) than with the SIR model. To verify our assumption, establishing the proper disease parameters, a simulation is done for different epidemiological scenarios with both models. Furthermore, the results of simulation runs are employed for an optimal containment model based on a vaccination or self- isolation strategy. Additionally, other simulation were performed in order to obtain an optimal policy using our previous results from the spreading models simulation, getting a better insight of the diseases behavior during an outbreak.
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