2014
EMSS 2014 Proceeding
A Novel friday 13th risk analysis of a global food process ? application to pasteurization of raw milk containing mycobacterium avium paratubercolusis
Authors: Kenneth R. Davey, Saravanan Chandrakash, Brian K. O'Neill
Abstract
A novel Fr 13 global model for pasteurization of raw milk containing Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis that consists of three unit-operations, heating, holding and cooling, is presented for the first time and compared with traditional methods. A global model is defined by us as two or more inter-connected unit-operations. The aim was to gain quantitative insight into stochastic effects that can lead to surprise failure of an otherwise well-operated pasteurization plant. Failure is defined in terms of criteria for safe operation and a risk factor is developed for each unit- operation in terms of actual and design performance, together with a practical tolerance. Simulations are based on a refined Monte Carlo sampling of key parameters. Results reveal that, with a tolerance overall of 3 %, pasteurization is vulnerable to failure in 8.4 % of all (batch) continuous operations over a prolonged time. This insight cannot be obtained from traditional methods.
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