Authors: Cristiana Gonçalves Borges, José Almeida Simões, Luiz Augusto Franzese, Daniel Pablo Paz
The problem of calculating future capacity of a projected port involves several uncertainties, which means that it is not possible to find a single formula that considers the interaction of the different variables affecting the port?s operational performance, particularly considering that many of these variables are related to stochastic distributions and restrictions in shared resources. Only a simulation model can consider all the variables and produce a reliable projection of the port?s future behavior. It is very important to precisely estimate the figures because the demurrage costs grows exponentially as the port?s occupancy moves toward 100%, which directly affects the project?s feasibility.