2011
HMS 2011 Proceeding
Investigation of Financial Flows in Logistics Using Multivariate Statistical Modelling Methods
Authors: Vladimirs Jansons, Vitalijs Jurenoks, Konstantins Didenko
Abstract
Multivariate statistical modelling is used to investigate complex economic systems in cases when random values are characterized as arbitrary (nonparametric). When modelling the financial stability of the logistics firm (LF) and transport logistics system (TLS) in general, it is most essential to detect the statistical character of the interrelationships among all participants (subsystems) of TLS. In real systems these interrelationships are correlated. In this case when modelling the financial stability of TLS and the statistical character of interrelationships it would be rational to use copula as a tool of multivariate statistics. Use of the copula and Monte-Carlo methods make it possible to approximate joint distribution of the significant factors of TLS and to estimate the behaviour of financial stability of the investigated TLS in relation to probabilities and therefore its expected values which is impossible to be achieved by classical statistical methods.
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