Authors:   Vladimirs Jansons, Vitalijs Jurenoks, Konstantins Didenko

Abstract

Latvia has recently seen an increase in volumes of exports and imports of goods, and volumes of cargo transit through the territory of Latvia have also increased. The results of the study of the Latvian Road Carrier Association show that, in 2011, the Latvian trucking companies' freight turnover increased by 20%. At the same time, the number of cars and trucks registered in Latvia is also increasing. The intensity of vehicular traffic on roads of Latvia increases too, especially, the transit traffic on the main roads of Latvia. The aim of this research is to model the incidence of road traffic accidents and populated areas (towns) that occur on the main (national) highways of Latvia and estimate the expected interval of variations in the real damage incurred by the state. The research envisages the creation of the following models 1. to determine the possible number of road traffic accidents on the main (public) roads; 2. to calculate the damage (general economic losses CTotal) caused for the national economy of Latvia due to road traffic accidents. The authors believe that the effectiveness of the logistics process should be evaluated not only taking into consideration the volume of goods transported, and the profit derived from it, but should also assess the losses incurred by the state due to increased road traffic accidents and fatalities, destruction of vehicles and road surfaces, and so on. In this research, using statistical modelling, we determine the relationship between parameters describing the state of road infrastructure in Latvia, and intensity on the roads of Latvia, as well as economic losses due to increased intensity of the logistics process and increased numbers of road traffic accidents (resulting value).