2015
HMS 2015 Proceeding
Modelling and assessment of risks in logistics using multidimensional statistical methods
Authors: Vladimirs Jansons, Vitalijs Jurenoks, Konstantins Didenko, Julia Pushkina
Abstract
Logistics process of cargo delivery from point A in point B, as a chain of consecutive risks, is considered in the article. All risks are shared into three main groups. Authors investigate each risk influence on insurance premium volume, and, therefore, insurance component influence on cargo delivery cost. Ranking of risk factors according to their influence on the cargo insurance premium is carried out by authors. The resulting research model estimates cargo delivery costs, takes into account the ordered risks, and makes it easier to model the logistical task considering the most significant risks of delivery. For modelling of delivery costs risk component is applied Monte-Carlo multidimensional statistical modelling method, similar to modelling process which was presented in the article by Jansons, V., Jurenoks, V., Didenko, K., 2013. Use of modelling for assessment of Latvian road safety and logistics costs minimization.
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