2010
MAS 2010 Proceeding
Modeling and Simulation of Process Interruptions with Copulas
Authors: Ivan Ourdev, Simaan AbouRizk
Abstract
Construction projects are exposed to various unexpected interruptions, with equipment breakdowns being the most common. Proper modeling of these interruptions along with the associated uncertainty can significantly reduce risk and improve project management. We employ a new mathematical approach, the copula method, to model the field observations in a tunnel excavation project. We characterize the excavation process interruptions with their degree of severity and frequency, and develop a Student t copula model for the underlying dependence structure. The model is consecutively utilized in a Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates all available information to forecast the project completion time. The adaptive estimates then serve as a basis for project management decisions. Our approach allows to incorporate the uncertainty within an intuitive simulation framework and to accurately model the dependence of the different dimensions of the process interruptions.
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