2012
WAMS 2012 Proceeding
Probabilistic model for an economy coming through integration transformations
Authors: Peter Kamyshanov, Alexander Kamyshanov
Abstract
The European Union countries are realizing economic integration transformations. Period of these reforms is coinciding in time with the global economic downturn. To overcome crisis the competitive growth in the integrated economies should begin. For description the factors of this growth probabilistic model based on cognitive science and context analysis of reforms' goals is presented. The model gives the possibility to apply stochastic methods as for the management of integration transformations, so for scheduling the creation of the competitive innovative knowledge economies in post industrial societies. Reforms' results are defined by the magnitudes of terminal probabilities that allow grouping the economies in four clusters. In future, new multi criteria approaches should be used at all levels of management hierarchy for planning the integration scenarios.
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